Peter:" I looked at the CDC link he posted, and it's quite well done
(although I found the additional international data, historical contextual
data, and age breakdown done by the Economist to be instructive). The CDC
link contained this: "As many deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to
other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not mentioned on the
death certificate as a suspected cause of death), tracking all-cause
mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths
is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted."
I saw nowhere in the page anything saying that COVID deaths have been
overreported."
But Peter, if you apply the logic of the first paragraph (the CDC's own
logic), to the numbers also provided by the CDC, then either the covid
deaths were drastically over reported, or there was a massive, along the
lines of 180K, death reduction in other causes. It would be the only way the
total could come out the way they did. Now that would certainly be news. All
you need to do is apply logic and math.
Peter:" "Total predicted number of excess deaths since 2/1/2020 across the
United States:
190,912 - 253,841." This squares very closely with the data he questioned in
The Economist."
Please think about what you are saying here. The PREDICTED numbers, not the
actual numbers, match. OK, if you say so. BUT the PREDICTED numbers don't
coincide with the actual numbers... Sooooo, what does that tell us? If the
predicted numbers that were used by the Economist are flawed, then the
numbers they published are also flawed. Seriously, try to do better.
Peter:" , a good number to look at is total excess deaths, and it bears
repeating that Mr. Cohen's citation puts that number at 190,912 - 253,841
from Feb. 1 to Sept. 2."
These are the exact same PREDICTED deaths you cited earlier, and where the
real data is available, it has been shown that the predictions were
inaccurate. But let's not let facts and logic get in the way.
Here another set of facts that I'm sure will set you off (ok, it's actually
just another way of looking at the same numbers);
2019 and 2020
Jan
Feb
Mar
deaths as % of pop 2019
0.0795%
0.0718%
0.0785%
deaths as % of pop 2020
0.0808%
0.0746%
0.0822%
increase in pop 2019-2020
1595018
1602179
1609338
increase in deaths 2019-2020
5526
10458
13452
After adjusting for population growth, the real, verifiable numbers show the
excess deaths as less than a rounding error. When this is all over the
excess deaths for 2020 when compared to past years won't even exist.
I will give you that there was probably some shift in the age of those that
died. That might be interesting data to look at. But it's just an idea, no
facts on it.. yet
I think we all would have been better off if the US had just shut down
international travel, provided better protection of the elderly and highest
risk (those care facilities that are the hotspots now), and let the rest go
on with their lives, taking personal precautions or risks as they felt
necessary.
And here's a big shocker for you. In all likelihood you WILL get covid19. At
the very least it's going to be around FOREVER, just like so many other
viruses. Sure, eventually they will get a vaccine. Which I too will get..
after it's been out for a while, probably a year.
Rest of post
On a more important, and somber note. We should all remember the Heros that
went into the towers trying to save those who were the unfortunate victims
of a vicious attack on the USA. Never forget them.