I know a few epidemiologists, and years ago I asked one who worked out west if
she knew Michael Osterholm; of course she did (surprise, surprise), and from
her account, he is well thought of in the field (as much as that crowd thinks
well of colleagues and others). It is the nature of the job to be thought of as
Cassandra-ish.
I'm sure the link George Dawson provides in another thread is chock full of
good information, but the nature of the flu virus and how it moves from host to
host and across the country is pretty well known. Our typical strains during
the regular influenza season start out in Asia as the virus jumps from birds to
pigs to humans, mutating to the point where they can become bothersome or even
deadly to some people. The immunologists have some time to identify these
strains as they form and see that pharmaceutical companies who manufacture
vaccines against the flu every year, have that list. Sometimes they miss a
strain or more, but usually they are pretty good.
This swine flu is different, of course, because the classic path of mutation is
happening here; it is a local flu virus and we are just about ready to throw a
bunch of people and animals together in Falcon Heights, almost like what
happens in the traditional farming areas of Asia and we have no vaccine.
Osterholm is doing his job and I can understand why he wants the pigs somewhere
else, but I'm more of a cheerleader for mother nature as one bug or another
knocking a few of us off is not always a bad thing from a certain perspective;
there are way too many of us and it is much better, more acceptable to the
public, and more natural to evolve a deadly flu strain than having crazies
shooting us in movie theaters;-) This way, we naturally lose the very young and
very old, mostly, and make a few others miserable; unless of course we get a
rare real killer strain out of this that kills nearly everyone.
A few people have gotten sick and a few more will get sick and perhaps we'll
kick off flu season a little early with a domestic strain. There are things we
should do, but I can't imagine a trip to the fair without going to the swine
barn and although the kids keep things pretty clean, I always wash my hands
when I come out of the livestock halls.
See you at the Minnesota State Fair. I'll meet you there at the swine barn,
perhaps, and we'll kick off Armegeddon.