Post in Peak Oil and implications for Christchurch

2007 Jun 12 02:11 UTC

Hi Bob,

Thanks for your introduction, and for your participation here.

My major concerns for the city over the next few years are the risks
posed by Peak Oil and how we can mitigate them (for those of you who
don't know anything about it, just Google for "peak oil", or visit:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

for a good overview). Very briefly, Peak Oil is the point where we've
used up half of the worlds available oil, and the easily accessible half
at that - the second half will be a *lot* more expensive and difficult
to obtain. There is considerable debate about when this will happen, but
one thing I can say about it is that most credible experts have for the
last few years been estimating between 2005 and 2010. Most of the less
credible estimates have been between never and 2050, but in the time
I've been watching (the last four years), the later estimates have been
tracking consistently backwards towards the more credible estimates.

So, it's going to happen pretty soon, if it hasn't already.

Arguably the biggest risk that Christchurch politicians could take in
the coming years is to buy in to the assumption that our motoring habits
will continue to grow at the current rate for the forseeable future, and
that we need to allow for a continual increase in the roading
infrastructure to cater for it at a substantial cost to Christchurch
ratepayers.

So, Bob, how do you feel about taking this risk on behalf of the city ?
If it turns out that, the day after you're elected Mayor, a worldwide
consensus is reached that Peak Oil is here and now, our easy motoring
ways of the past are coming to an end, and something needs to be done
about it urgently, what would that something for Christchurch be ?

Cheers, Andrew.