7, 8, 10, 12, and 13. In the remaining wards, and for the mayoral election,
IRV transformations will be necessary to determine the winner.
This is what my model projects for each of the viable candidates. It runs both
in a bold mode and a cautious mode, so two figures are reported for each, which
may be considered a range.
Mayor:
Frey 59.2-66.8% chance of winning
Hoch 14.4-17.7%
Hodges 9.2-11.3%
Dehn 6-7.3%
Levy-Pounds 3.7-4.5%
These projections need to be revised as IRV transformations take place. For
example, if Levy-Pounds is eliminated and a disproportionate share of her
next-choice votes go to Dehn, thus elevating him above other candidates, then
the projections will be revised to reflect this.
Interestingly, unlike 2013 when only one candidate was eliminated per round
(with one exception), this time, all of the minor candidates will be eliminated
in one batch.
Ward 1: Reich 66.6-77.6% chance of winning
Ward 3: Jentzen 64-74% chance of winning
Fletcher 15.7-21.8% chance of winning
Bildsoe 10.3-14.3% chance of winning
WARNING: The dynamic in Ward 3 might not be suitable for purely mathematical
analysis
Ward 4: Johnson 62.2-71.4% chance of winning
Ward 5: Ellison 88.3-97.2% chance of winning
Ward 9: Cano 94.2-99.3% chance of winning
Ward 11: Schroeder 51.1-52.2% chance of winning
If Schroeder prevails via IRV transformations, John Quincy will be the first
council member from the 11th Ward to be defeated since 1953.
Tony L. Hill, Ph.D.